2023 TIV has potential to break new car sales record, order backlogs begin to ease - MIDF Research

New car sales’ performance in 2023 is believed to have potential in surpassing the record-breaking figure in 2022, although the total industry volume (TIV) momentum is close to peaking and backlog order growth flattening out.

A report released by MIDF Research yesterday mentioned that the 2023 TIV still has some room to outperform its projection of 713,000 units, as the cumulative TIV as at August 2023 stood at 501,552 units – making up 70% of its full year forecast. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), with a higher forecast of 725,000 units, expects September TIV to sustain at August levels.

2022 saw an all-time high TIV achieved in the history of the local automotive industry, clocking in at 720,658 units.

At the same time, analysts suggest that vehicle manufacturers are experiencing initial signs of reduction in order backlogs compared to March – June; following a push in production to address the long waiting list previously.

Waiting period for Perodua Ativa is down to 3 months as of June 2023

Perodua is noted to have the strongest backlog bookings – stretching up to 6-7 months – among the major players. The second national carmaker’s TIV increased 19.5 percent (YoY) in August 2023. Perodua comes second after Mazda that saw the biggest increase in TIV at 37 percent during the same period.

“While we believe TIV momentum is close to peaking (after record breaking TIV in 2022 and potentially another new record this year), we do not expect a drastic fall at this juncture as demand could remain supported by improvement in unemployment rate and income conditions, while a moderating inflation trend also lends support,” said the statement.

MIDF Research also noted the price hikes – between 1.8 percent to 12 percent increase depending on marque and models – among non-national players since early this year have yet to show their full impact given industry’s large order backlogs.